Affordability Crisis or Wealth Effect? Black Friday Spending

Recently, former Home Depot and Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli went on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria in a segment titled “Massive holiday spending surge raises new questions about consumer debt.” Fox Business

In short:

Holiday spending is on fire.
Debt is rising.
People are frustrated about prices.

And in the middle of all that, everyone keeps repeating the same phrase:

“It’s an affordability crisis.”

As a husband, dad, and online business owner, I wanted to respond to that conversation from my real-life perspective—and then zoom out to what the data and experts are actually saying.

Because the dessert is hot right now.
And by the way… I’ve got an ice-cold bucket of water next to it if you’d like to try it: building your own online income stream.

My Reality Check: I Bought Nothing on Black Friday or Cyber Monday

Let me start with a confession.

I didn’t buy anything on Black Friday.
I didn’t buy anything on Cyber Monday.

Not because I didn’t want to—I did. There were things I would’ve loved to grab for my family. But like a lot of households, the last few years of higher prices have forced us to make harder choices.

Groceries feel heavier every time I swipe the card.
Eating out used to be casual—now it’s a calculated decision.
I’m optimistic about the future, but for the next 3–4 months, we’re tight.

Our family is doing okay, and I’m grateful for that. But even for us, I’ve had to cut back, watch the cart, and say, “Not this month” more often than I like.

So here’s the disconnect I feel:

If so many people feel squeezed like I do…
Why are the Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers still breaking records?

Let’s look at what’s actually happening.

The Numbers: Record Spending in a Supposed “Affordability Crisis”

Despite all the talk of crisis, the hard data tells a different story.

Black Friday 2025: U.S. online sales hit $11.8 billion, up about 9% from last year. Blackfriday Statistics 2025
Cyber Monday 2025: U.S. shoppers spent about $14.25 billion online, pushing total online sales over Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) to $44.2 billion, a 7.7% jump from 2024. reuters.com
Shoppers: A record 202.9 million Americans shopped over that 5-day weekend, with over 129 million going in-store. reuters.com
Average spend: Shoppers spent about $338 on average, up from roughly $316 last year. reuters.com

Analytics firms like Adobe and Mastercard also show that Black Friday and Cyber Monday both set new online records, with Cyber Monday alone projected in some reports around $14.2 billion. Blackfriday Statistics 2025+1

Meanwhile:

According to The Wealth Advisor, for over two years economists and market commentators have been calling for a recession that still hasn’t arrived. They note that bearish forecasters have been warning the U.S. economy was “on the brink of collapse,” but each predicted crash “failed to materialize.” Wealth Advisor
Since October 2022, the S&P 500 has surged about 87%, powered by a resilient labor market, strong consumer spending, and big investment in tech, reshoring, and infrastructure. Wealth Advisor

So yes, prices are up. People feel stressed.
But clearly, somebody still has money—and they’re spending it.

The question is: who?

My Three Theories on Why Americans Are Still Spending

I’ve been thinking about all this a lot—personally and as someone building an online business.

Here are my three big theories on what’s going on with Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending.

Theory #1: We’re Spoiled, Not Necessarily in a Total Collapse

Americans are used to cheap everything.

So when prices go up quickly, and our wages don’t keep up, it feels like the world is ending. We call it an “affordability crisis.” Add in job losses and layoffs in certain sectors, and there is real pain out there.

But is it a full-blown collapse? Or is it a painful reset from a long period of cheap money and cheap goods?

Economists at The Wealth Advisor point out that a lot of classic “recession indicators”—like the inverted yield curve—have been blinking red since 2022, yet the economy has just kept grinding forward, powered in part by resilient consumer spending and strong corporate profits. Wealth Advisor

In other words:

The story isn’t “everything’s fine.”
The story is “things are uneven–and the old models don’t fully explain it.”

Theory #2: People Are Cutting Back on Everyday Stuff, but Still Splurging on Their “Thing”

Look at fast food, which used to be the classic cheap treat.

A recent explainer in The Week notes that McDonald’s prices have jumped about 40% between 2019 and 2024, as beef, wages, and other costs climbed. The Week
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski has pointed out that rents, food prices (both grocery and restaurant), and childcare costs are all high, and that low-income consumers are being forced to absorb a lot of that inflation. The Week
Another report shows traffic from households earning under $45,000 has dropped by nearly double digits, while visits from higher-income customers have risen. WebProNews

Fast food was supposed to be the “cheap option.”
Now it’s becoming out of reach for a lot of lower-income families.

That lines up with my own life:

We’ve cut back on eating out.
Grocery trips are more strategic.
We’ve trimmed a lot of “small” luxuries.

But everybody has something they still splurge on:

Video games
Streaming and cable
Sports tickets
Clothes, sneakers, concert tickets
Travel, events, or that one big Black Friday TV deal

You might cut 10 little things and still say, “I’m grabbing that one big thing while it’s on sale.”

So yes, people are pulling back—but selectively.

In fact, Newsweek cites data showing that Black Friday spending grew about 3.1%, but the number of items sold (volume) rose only around 0.2%, while average selling prices climbed about 7%. Newsweek

Translation:

People are buying slightly more stuff…
Paying a lot more per item…
And being picky and budget-conscious while they do it.

Theory #3: The “Wealth Effect” and a K-Shaped Economy Are Driving the Numbers

Here’s where things get real.

A lot of this record holiday spending seems to be powered by:

Higher-income households
People with investment gains
Consumers who manage money carefully and kept their balance sheets strong

Newsweek quotes retail analysts saying that much of the growth is being driven by middle- and higher-income households, and that a “clear majority of holiday sales growth can be attributed directly to higher prices.” Newsweek

They describe this as part of an increasingly obvious “K-shaped” economy:

The upper branch of the K (high earners, asset-owners) keeps climbing.
The lower branch of the K (low-income, low-asset households) flattens or falls behind.

That matches what we saw with McDonald’s:
lower-income traffic plunges, while higher-income traffic rises. WebProNews

It’s also visible in the broader economy:

The Wealth Advisor notes that despite higher interest rates, inflation worries, and tariffs, the U.S. economy and stock market have been “remarkably resilient,” with the S&P 500 surging and many recession calls proving flat-out wrong. Wealth Advisor
At the same time, surveys show consumers feeling more negative about prices, job security, and big-ticket purchases, even as total spending sets new records. Newsweek

So when Bob Nardelli talks about strong holiday spending and rising consumer debt at the same time, he’s basically describing this weird split reality: massive spending on one side, serious strain on the other. Fox Business+1

The Tools People Are Using: Buy Now, Pay Later and AI Deal-Hunting

Another huge piece of this puzzle is how people are making these purchases.

The Washington Post reports that “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) services like Klarna and Affirm drove about $10.1 billion in spending this holiday season so far, with Cyber Monday alone hitting a record $1.03 billion—around 7% of online spending that day. The Washington Post
Adobe and other trackers say BNPL usage is up for both high-income shoppers (luxuries) and lower-income shoppers (necessities)—another K-shaped dynamic. Newsweek+1
BlackFriday statistics show U.S. Black Friday online sales at $11.8 billion, global sales at $79 billion, and nearly $747.5 million of Black Friday online purchases done via BNPL, up more than 30% from last year. Blackfriday Statistics 2025
AI tools are now quietly steering a ton of spending: estimates suggest nearly $3 billion in U.S. online Black Friday sales were driven by AI and agents, with AI traffic to retail sites jumping over 800% year-over-year. Blackfriday Statistics 2025+1

So we have:

Record spending
Rising prices
More strategic, value-driven shopping
Heavier use of BNPL and AI tools
And a big chunk of the spending driven by people who already have assets

That’s not the picture of a consumer who is totally “tapped out.”

It’s a picture of an economy where:

If you have assets, investments, or higher income, you can still play the game.
If you don’t… you’re stuck making brutal trade-offs.

Where I Fit in This: Tight Months, Quiet Optimism

For my household, the next few months are going to be tight.

We’re watching our grocery budget.
We’re planning carefully, not swiping impulsively.
And we definitely didn’t go wild this Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

I’m optimistic, but I’m not naïve.
I feel both truths at the same time:

The macro-numbers say “things are okay,” maybe even good.
The day-to-day reality says “this is hard.”

That tension is exactly why I keep coming back to this conclusion:

If you’re relying only on a paycheck to survive the affordability crisis,
you’re playing this game on hard mode.

Which brings me to the “bucket of water” I mentioned at the top.

The “Ice-Cold Water” Option: Start Building an Online Business

If the dessert (Black Friday spending) is hot, my bucket of cold water is this:

👉 Start building an online business now—before the next wave of economic weirdness hits.

That doesn’t mean you quit your job tomorrow. It means:

Add one extra income stream on top of what you already do.
Use nights, weekends, or pockets of free time.
Build something that belongs to you, not to your employer.

One of the platforms I personally recommend—and use—is Wealthy Affiliate, because it teaches:

How to build websites and blogs that actually attract traffic
How to use affiliate marketing to earn on products people already buy
How to plug into tools like AI (and platforms like 757BizClick) to speed up content creation

👉 You can check it out here:
Start learning how to build an online business with Wealthy Affiliate

No system is magic. You still have to work.
But in an economy where prices are rising faster than wages for many people, earning power matters as much as (or more than) cutting expenses.

If You Like This Kind of Breakdown…

On 757BizClick, I’m building out a hub where I:

Break down these kinds of economic trends
Review tools and platforms that can help you make money online
Share updates, tips, and news for small business owners and side-hustlers

👉 You can find that hub here:
Business Reviews, Updates, Tips and News – 757BizClick

Bookmark it—I’ll be updating it as this “affordability crisis” narrative unfolds.

Final Thoughts: Is It Really an Affordability Crisis?

Here’s where I land after looking at the data, listening to Nardelli and other experts, and reflecting on my own grocery cart:

Yes, life has gotten more expensive.
Yes, lower-income and many middle-income families are feeling squeezed.
Yes, some people are cutting back hard, skipping even old “cheap” treats like fast food.

But at the same time:

Holiday spending is hitting record highs. reuters.com+1
The stock market and economy keep defying recession predictions. Wealth Advisor
High-income consumers and savvy shoppers are powering a lot of the growth. Newsweek+1

So I don’t think the main story is “we’re doomed.”

I think the story is:

We’re in a K-shaped, uneven economy where
those with assets, skills, and extra income streams are still eating dessert…
while everyone else is wondering how long they can keep the lights on.

If you’re tired of feeling like you’re on the wrong side of that K-shape, then:

Pay attention to this data.
Cut where you need to—but don’t stop there.
Start building something of your own, even if it’s just one post, one video, or one small site at a time.

The dessert is hot.
The bucket of water is right here.
It’s up to you which one you reach for.

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