I keep hearing it: “Stores are closing everywhere.”
And I get why it feels like a big problem—because closures make noise. They hit your memories, your routines, and sometimes your whole neighborhood.

For me, it’s not even theoretical. I can ride down Military Highway and feel that little twinge of nostalgia—because Hampton Roads used to do malls different. Saturdays, food court, running into people you didn’t plan to see, that one store everybody “just wanted to look at”…

So let’s put the emotion on the table and put the facts on the table.

Because the truth is: both things can be true at once.

Yes, store closures are elevated right now.
No, that doesn’t automatically mean brick-and-mortar is “dead.”
And yes, online shopping keeps rising like a tide—BUT the shoreline is changing in more than one way.

Let’s bake the whole “retail reality pie,” ingredients and all.

Ingredient #1: The closure headlines aren’t fake… but they’re incomplete

I just read an article that quoted an enormous amount of store closures. I was floored by the gravity of it. But something told me hold on for a minute. Maybe there i s more to this. Here are the numbers.

Research groups are forecasting a lot of closures in 2025. Coresight projected roughly 15,000 U.S. store closures in 2025, with about 5,800 openings. Business Wire+2Retail Dive+2

That’s real. And it’s news, because closures are dramatic:

it’s a date,
a sign on the door,
and usually a “what happened?”

But here’s what headlines often skip: retail is always churning.
Chains close weaker locations, renegotiate leases, relocate, merge, or reinvent. A closure doesn’t always mean the customer disappeared—it can mean the format is changing.

Ingredient #2: Online shopping really has grown (but it hasn’t replaced everything)

If you zoom out over 20 years, online sales have absolutely been rising.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimated e-commerce accounted for 16.1% of total U.S. retail sales in 2024. Census
And as of Q3 2025, e-commerce was 16.4% of total retail sales (seasonally adjusted). Census.gov+1

So yes—online is the rising tide.

But here’s the part that keeps the story honest:
Even at ~16%, most retail spending is still not online. People still buy a lot in person (or at least not through a traditional e-commerce checkout).

So if a headline makes it sound like “everyone shops online now,” that’s the narrative running ahead of the data.

Ingredient #3: The plot twist nobody expects—stores can boost online sales

This is one of the biggest “wait, what?” facts I found.

ICSC research found that opening a physical store can lift a retailer’s online sales in the surrounding trade area by about 6.9% on average (and they also observed declines when stores close). ICSC+1

So the modern story isn’t really “online vs. in-store.”

It’s more like:
online + in-store working together, especially for brands that want trust, visibility, and local presence.

Ingredient #4: Hampton Roads mall scene — you’re not imagining the change

Now let’s bring it home.

When people in Hampton Roads say, “Malls aren’t what they used to be,” there’s a reason. A few big local examples show the pattern: transition + redevelopment + mixed-use thinking.

Norfolk: MacArthur Center is in “waiting for the next identity” mode

The City of Norfolk’s own page notes MacArthur Center is currently 56% occupied, and that national retail closures have affected it, while the city maintains the property as redevelopment discussions continue. Norfolk.gov
And local reporting keeps the pressure on because tenants and residents want clarity about what’s next. 13 News Now+1

Norfolk: Military Circle is the “end of an era” example

WHRO reports Military Circle Mall closed for good in 2023 after more than 50 years, and that remaining leases have complicated redevelopment. WHRO Public Media
There have also been ongoing discussions about what the site could become (fitness/wellness, library, and other community-oriented uses have been reported). Virginia Business+1

Chesapeake: Chesapeake Square is literally being remade

Virginia Business reported that sections of Chesapeake Square Mall are being demolished as part of a $30 million redevelopment. Virginia Business
Local TV coverage has also described the partial demolition and redevelopment timeline (including the goal of adding new retail uses). 13 News Now

Virginia Beach: the Lynnhaven area signals “the hub is shifting, not vanishing”

You can see public investment thinking around that corridor—Virginia Beach is doing Lynnhaven Parkway improvements, including pedestrian upgrades and connectivity, and local reporting notes work staged around the Lynnhaven Mall area. City of Virginia Beach+1
And the city’s planning materials treat Lynnhaven as a strategic growth area, with redevelopment and connectivity ideas tied into the area. City of Virginia Beach

So the Hampton Roads “mall vibe” is real: it’s not the same as the old days.
But it’s not just decline—it’s repositioning.

Ingredient #5: Across the nation, malls are splitting into “winners” and “fixer-uppers”

Nationally, the mall story is less “everything is dying” and more “the middle is getting squeezed.”

A Newmark report highlighted that Class A malls saw foot traffic increase (2023 to 2024), while Class B malls declined. Newmark+1

And when a mall can’t win as pure retail anymore, the common next move is:
turn it into mixed-use—housing, offices, hotels, entertainment, medical, restaurants—so the land still earns its keep.

ULI has been covering this exact trend: malls being reinvented as mixed-use town centers. Urban Land
CBRE also frames “obsolete retail space” as an opportunity for redevelopment into mixed-use and experiential formats. CBRE

So yes: the enclosed mall era is shrinking in many markets.
But the real headline should be: the mall footprint is being repurposed.

So… is the “retail apocalypse” narrative overblown?

Here’s my take, straight up:

It’s not made up.

Closures are high and painful, and in some regions it truly is a mess. Business Wire+1

It is often missing context.

Because the story people need isn’t “stores are dying.”
It’s “retail is reorganizing.”

And sometimes… yeah, headlines chase drama.

Closures are easier to write about than:

slow rebuilds,
mixed-use projects,
or the fact that a store closing at the mall might reopen as a smaller format near a neighborhood shopping center.

The tide metaphor: is online pushing stores out like the moon pulling the ocean?

I’d say it like this:

Online shopping is absolutely a tide that rose for 20 years. Census+1
But brick-and-mortar isn’t just getting swallowed.

It’s doing three things at the same time:

Shrinking in weaker formats (especially lower-performing malls) Newmark+1
Shifting into stronger formats (value, convenience, off-mall, grocery-anchored)
Transforming into mixed-use, experience, and community-based spaces Urban Land+1

So the “tide” is real—but the shoreline is being rebuilt with new materials.

Wrap-up: what I’m watching as we head into 2026

In Hampton Roads, the old mall culture isn’t gone from our hearts… but the real estate is clearly evolving:

some locations are in limbo,
some are being demolished,
some areas are getting investment and upgrades,
and nationally the best malls act more like “third places,” while weaker ones get repurposed. Newmark+1

If you’re building a business—online or local—this is actually useful:

Online keeps growing, but it’s not “everything.” Census.gov
Physical presence still matters, and can even boost online performance. ICSC+1
The winners are usually the ones who understand customers want convenience + trust + experience, not just a shopping cart.

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